Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
