With an unexpected announcement, a key main hopefuls in Ireland's presidential election has withdrawn from the campaign, dramatically altering the entire competition.
Sudden Exit Reconfigures Political Contest
Fianna Fáil's Jim Gavin stepped down on the evening of Sunday following disclosures about an outstanding payment to a former tenant, turning the contest into an unpredictable direct competition between a center-right former government minister and an autonomous progressive parliamentarian.
Gavin, 54, a political novice who joined the race after work in sport, aviation and the military, quit after it came to light he had neglected to refund a rent overpayment of over three thousand euros when he was a property owner about in the mid-2000s, during a period of financial difficulty.
"I committed an error that was contrary to my values and the expectations I hold. I am currently resolving the issue," he stated. "I have also thought long and hard, about the potential impact of the current political contest on the welfare of my family and friends.
"After evaluating everything, I have decided to withdraw from the presidential election contest with immediate action and rejoin my loved ones."
Race Narrowed to Leading Candidates
The most dramatic event in a presidential campaign in living memory narrowed the contest to one candidate, a past government official who is campaigning for the incumbent center-right political party Fine Gael, and Catherine Connolly, an outspoken pro-Palestinian voice who is supported by a political party and small leftwing opposition parties.
Problem for Leader
The withdrawal also created turmoil for the prime minister and party head, the party chief, who had put his reputation on the line by selecting an inexperienced hopeful over the doubts of party colleagues.
The leader stated Gavin did not want to "cause dispute" to the office of president and was justified in leaving. "Gavin recognized that he committed a mistake in relation to an situation that has emerged recently."
Political Difficulties
Even with a track record of competence and success in enterprise and sports – under his leadership the Dublin football squad to multiple successive wins – his political bid struggled through missteps that put him at a disadvantage in an survey even prior to the financial revelation.
Fianna Fáil figures who had been against choosing the candidate said the episode was a "serious miscalculation" that would have "repercussions" – a thinly veiled warning to Martin.
Election Rules
The candidate's name may remain on the ballot in the vote scheduled for October 24, which will conclude the lengthy term of Michael D Higgins, but voters now face a binary choice between a traditional center candidate and an non-aligned left-leaning candidate. Survey results prior to Gavin's exit gave Connolly 32% support and Humphreys nearly a quarter, with the former candidate at 15 percent.
Under electoral rules, people pick contenders based on preference. If no candidate exceeds half the votes initially, the hopeful with the fewest initial choices is eliminated and their ballots are redistributed to the next preference.
Likely Support Redistribution
Analysts predicted that if Gavin was eliminated, the bulk of his support would transfer to Humphreys, and conversely, boosting the chance that a establishment hopeful would secure the presidency for the Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael coalition.
Role of the Presidency
This office is a largely symbolic post but the current and former presidents transformed it into a venue for worldwide concerns.
Final Contenders
Connolly, 68, from her home city, would introduce a robust progressive perspective to that legacy. She has assailed neoliberal economics and stated the organization constitutes "part of the fabric" of the Palestinian people. Connolly has alleged Nato of militarism and likened Germany's increased defence spending to the pre-war era, when Germany underwent rearmament.
Humphreys, 62, has faced scrutiny over her record as a minister in cabinets that oversaw a property shortage. Being a member of that faith from the border county of Monaghan, she has also been faulted for her inability to speak Irish but commented her faith tradition could help win over Northern Ireland's unionists in a reunified nation.
