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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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