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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd