Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.